Pub. 13 2014-2015 Issue 4

N E W J E R S E Y C O A L I T I O N O F A U T O M O T I V E R E T A I L E R S I S S U E N O . 1 , 2 0 1 5 14 new jersey auto retailer The Revving Engine of Global Growth Since 2007, the world has been held up by stories of fantastic growth in emerging markets. Global growth fol lowing the Global Financial Cr isis (GFC) was al l about the dynamic new economies of Asia, Africa, and South America. Those areas are slowing, meanwhile Europe, Japan , and South Korea cont i nue to face the twin threats of deflation and s t agna t i ng cons ume r s pend i ng . The strongest global economy is now the United States and our outlook for this year reflects our view of a weaker global market but with solid U.S. growth. We need to highlight, first, that U.S. growth has been led by a strong recovery in automotive. The making and selling of motor vehicles has been key to the economic recovery. In particular, we can point to rising sales — over 16.4 million light vehicles in 2014 — improving employment, with more than 1 million people working at new car dealerships, nationwide. Of course this isn’t so much about the past as it is about the future. Our outlook is very positive for the U.S. economy but much more downbeat for the rest of the world. As alluded to earlier, we see emerging markets slowing in 2015, with def la- tionary stressors particularly present in China. China is thus far managing a slowing economy quite well, certainly better than we were expecting. But there is rampant over-capacity in steel, automotive, cement, and virtually any other industry one wishes BY STEVE SZAKALY