Pub. 15 2016-2017 Issue 2

N E W J E R S E Y C O A L I T I O N O F A U T O M O T I V E R E T A I L E R S I S S U E N O . 3 , 2 0 1 6 24 new jersey auto retailer And from this figure, wherein darker colors reflect stronger polls leads in that state –we can see thatClinton leads the polls inmost of the places thatmatter – the stateswith the larger numbers of electoral votes. Since 1992, Democrats have succeeded in winning 18 states and the District of Columbia, for a total of 242 electoral votes. There is little reason to think that Clinton will not be able to carry these states as well. And demographic changes in the United States mean that many of blue states are even more Democratic now that they once were, and other states once considered battleground states havemoved into the “solidly Democratic camp,” includingNewMexico,with its five electoral votes. If those states remain solid for Clinton, that leaves her only 23 electoral votes short of the 270 necessary for victory. Indeed, the figure on the next page demonstrates the path that each candidate needs to take to win the requisite 270 electoral votes to be elected President. For Clinton to win, there are several combinations of states where she is leading in the polls that could deliver victory; for Trump, he must win all of the states in which he is leading, plus pick up Ohio, Florida, Nevada and New Hampshire (states where Clinton currently leads) to get to 270. There are other measures that indicate that a Clinton victory is im- minent: One of the best predictors of the outcome of presidential T his election year has been like no other. On the upside, there have been record high levels of voter interest, increased participation by new voters, new technologies that have revolutionized how candidates communicate with voters and how voters get information, and hotly contested primary elections that have meant an abundance of choice for voters. On the downside, the campaign has been defined by the increased polarizationof theAmericanelectorate,manifestedparticularlyby the record-high “unfavorable” ratings of both the major party nominees, Hillary Clinton andDonald Trump. Many would also view the level of debate – reduced to the scandal du jour or the incendiary Tweet of the moment – as a disappointing and dangerous illustration of the net effect that both the advent of social media and the evolving trans- formation of a traditional media has had on American campaigns. Why Hillary Has Already Won National polls will tell you that Clinton has a slim lead in this elec- tion. And when you look at “national polls” – aggregate polls of a sample of voters in the United States – that’s true enough. Clinton’s lead iswell within themost polls’margin of error, meaning that if we were to elect presidents purelybypopular election, the race is a toss-up. But of course, we don’t elect presidents through a purely population election. And because of the Electoral College, in which the popular vote in each state determines the outcome of that state’s electoral votes in a winner-take-all- manner, the outcome of the popular vote in swing-states is the determining factor in the election.Amapof theUnitedState that reflects the electoral weight of the states’ votes would look something like the image to the right: Source: http://projects.fivethirtyeight . com/2016-election-forecast/#plus The State of The Race, Mid-September, 2016 BY BRIGID CALLAHAN HARRISON, PH.D.