Pub. 15 2016-2017 Issue 2

N E W J E R S E Y C O A L I T I O N O F A U T O M O T I V E R E T A I L E R S 25 new jersey auto retailer W W W . N J C A R . O R G elections is the sitting President’s job approval rating. If aPresident has had more than 50 percent approval rating or greater, he or his party’s nominee has won the presidency in every election since 1964 – the notable exception being the 2000 election in which Al Gore won the popular vote but lost the Electoral College to George W. Bush after the Florida election controversy. President Obama’s approval rating has met or exceeded the necessary rating since July. Finally, there is the economic data. Political scientists historically have attempted to predict the outcome of elections based on a single economic variable, including gross domestic product, the Dow Jones industrial average, retail sales, nonfarmpayrolls, and so on. Typically, when the economy is performingwell, the incumbent party benefits in presidential elections. While no single economic variable can predict election outcomes, 1 various analyses of a wide range of independent economic variables consistently predicts Democratic retention of the White House. In addition, there is the question of “ground game.” Many political observers were taken aback during the run-up to the Republican Na- tional Convention when it became obvious that the Trump campaign had been caught unaware of the rules concerning balloting. TedCruz’s campaignhad been lobbying among the delegates to be their choice on a second ballot – in which delegates are “unbound” – relieved of their duty to vote for the candidate to whom they are pledged. In the end, it all worked out for Trump and he was able to win the nomination on the first ballot, but the snafu provided a glimpse into the campaign of a nominee who is not a traditional candidate, and who lacks a large and experienced staff that could compensate for knowledge gaps. And there is other evidence of this gap aspect of Trump’s candidacy: Among the most concerning for his supporters is the apparent lack of a Get Out The Vote (GOTV) field operation – a common practice in which candidates set up shop in a targeted area, convincing voters and themobilizing their supporters. One example of this: in the battle ground state of Florida, considered a “must win” for Trump, Trump has one field office in Sarasota. Clinton has 51 offices throughout the state. Certainly, Trump can openmore offices between nowandElec- tionDay, but this is work that takes more than 60 days to accomplish, particularly in states with early voting and vote by mail policies. Why I Could Be Wrong There is nodoubt that this election is unlike anyother, and thatDonald Trump is a candidate like no other. There have been suppositions that the polls are wrong – that given Trump’s divisive rhetoric on many issues, Trump supporters are reluctant to admit that they will be vot- ing for the controversial candidate – the so-called “interviewer effect.” The problem with this thesis is that there is little evidence to support it – polls have accurately predicted the outcome of most of the GOP primary races, focus groups have not detectedany recalcitrance among Trump supporters, and voters in red states do not seem reluctant to admit they are supporting Trump. But another factormay also play awild card: Die-hardBernie Sanders supporters, and disaffected Republicans. While Sanders himself is supporting Clinton, there is an undercurrent that indicates that some of his staunchest supporters—disaffectedMillennial voters –may still be holding out and instead backing Green Party candidate Jill Stein. On the other side of the spectrumare someRepublicans – particularly conservative Republicans – to whom Trump does not appeal, and who are supporting Libertarian Party candidate Gary Johnson. It's not that either of these candidate has any chance of winning even a Source: http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/#plus STATE OF THE RACE  continued on page 30