Pub. 15 2016-2017 Issue 4

N E W J E R S E Y C O A L I T I O N O F A U T O M O T I V E R E T A I L E R S 33 new jersey auto retailer W W W . N J C A R . O R G Senate President Stephen Sweeney and Jersey City Mayor Steven Fulop, who both declined to run. Three other Democrats have tossed their hats in the ring, but it is an uphill struggle. One candidate is Assemblyman John Wisniewski, who has represented parts of Middlesex County in the State Assembly since 1996. Wisniewski garnered headlines as the co-chair of the legislative commit- tee investigating the Bridgegate scandal. He once served as the State Democratic party chair, and last year served as chair of Bernie Sanders’ presidential campaign in New Jersey. Another Democrat seeking the gubernato- rial nomination is State Senator Raymond Lesniak, who has represented Union Coun- ty’s 20th district for 38 years. Through his consistent criticism of Gov. Christie and support of various issues, including LGBT rights, animal rights, and legalized sports betting, Lesniak has succeeded in building a cohort of loyal supporters, but like the other Democratic candidates, it has been a challenge to combat the effectiveness of Murphy’s campaign contributions in secur- ing support within the party, particularly from party chairs. Montclair resident Jim Johnson, the for- mer Chairman of the Board at the Bren- nan Center for Justice is a longshot can- didate, though he was the first candidate to raise the requisite $430,000 qualifying him for matching funds. Murphy has campaigned as a progressive Kennedy-esque Democrat, supporting policies such as the $15 minimum wage, reform of student-loan programs, tax breaks for the working poor, and the creation of a State-owned public bank allowing small business and college students to borrow money at lower rates than those charged by commercial banks. But critics contend that his campaign strategy mimics that of former Gold- man Sachs executive turned one-term governor Jon Corzine, noting that he has spread political contributions around the State ensuring that he would receive the coveted “party lines,” the designation on the ballot as the county party’s preferred candidate, which typically nets the lion’s share of the votes. Currently, Lt. Gov. Kim Guadagno is the Republican party’s front-runner to secure the nomination to succeed Gov. Christie. But for most of his tenure in office, Christie was focused on an even- tual presidential run, and was reluctant to allow anyone, including his running mate, to share the spotlight. Before being elected Lieutenant Governor, Guadagno was the first woman to be elected Sheriff in Monmouth County and is a former As- sistant U.S. Attorney, where she was the deputy chief of the anti-corruption unit, and was Assistant New Jersey Attorney General. She was tapped by Christie to serve as his Lieutenant Governor in the 2009 campaign, and is the first person to serve in that newly-created role. While many had hoped that Christie would rely heavily on Guadagno during his admin- istration, Guadagno’s skills have been seriously under-utilized. Her primary role has been to spearhead the New Jersey Partnership for Action, the Christie Ad- ministration’s primary economic devel- opment program, which has enabled Gua- dagno to forge close relationships with many of the State’s business leaders. But the Christie Administration has thwarted her efforts to create a Statewide persona, seldom permitting media interaction in her public appearances and essentially sidelining her from the inner circle of the administration. So Guadagno is left with all of the disadvantages that accompany being part of the least popular gubernato- rial administration in the State’s history, and few of the advantages that typically accompany being second in command. Guadagno’s foremost intraparty chal- lenge is coming from Republican Assem- blyman Jack Ciattarelli, who has served in the Legislature since 2011. Ciattarelli has been one of the few Republican elected of- ficials in the State to openly criticize Gov. Christie, but he faces an uphill battle: he has little name recognition outside of Somerset County (which he represents) ; much of the Re- publicanparty establishmentmaintains some loyalty toChristie; Ciattarelli has had a tough time gaining traction in his fundraising; and a diagnosis with throat cancer forced him to announce early this year that he was “scaling back”his fledging campaign. Butwhether the Republican nominee is Guadagno or Ciat- tarelli, they will face a serious challenge: Republicans are increasingly outnum- bered; they are saddled with the baggage of an unpopular incumbent Republican governor; and their likely opponent will be among the most well-financed candi- dates in State history. State Legislature Is Also On The Ballot In addition to electing a new governor, New Jersey voters also will be electing all 120 members of the State Legislature. The most powerful predictor of legislative wins in New Jersey is incumbency: New Jersey’s legislative districts are gerryman- dered so that the party in power in any given legislative district is heavily favored to win re-election. Incumbents also have the upper hand when it comes to garnering media attention and raising campaign funds. For example, in 2013, when all 80 members of the State Assembly and all 40members of the State Senate were up for election, incum- bents spent three times as much money as challengers. Only two incumbents lost their reelection bids that year. But 2017’s State Legislative elections are promising to be a bit more exciting, simply because of the large number of retirements in the State Senate. Democrats are seeking to increase their majorities in both chambers: